What will customs look like after Brexit?
With Brexit Day fast approaching and major customs-related issues still yet to be agreed & made law between Ireland, the UK and the EU, there’s still far too much uncertainty surrounding the costs and delays that Brexit will cause. To prepare as best we can, we’ve researched the likelihood of import-export duties and border delays in the event of a number of different scenarios.
UK/EU Customs Predictions for Brexit
We’re currently basing our assumptions on 3 possible Brexit scenarios. The contingency plans that we’re developing in-house are all based around these three scenarios, and are updated as and when further information becomes available.
1: A ‘No Deal’ Brexit on/after 31 October 2019
- Border delay risk: high
- Trade tariff risk: high
- Likelihood: medium
If Britain ‘crashes out’ with no EU agreement in place on 31 October 2019, then Britain will default to WTO rules and be classed as a ‘Third Country’. Countries like Norway, Liechtenstein and Switzerland have long-established agreements that enable for near-seamless road border transitions in and out of the EU, but these agreements don’t yet exist with the UK.
In the absence of a clear agreement between the UK and the EU, trucks could be subject to border checks until a new customs agreement has been reached and made law. This could cause significant delays on both sides of the border; it will affect how pallets can be combined on a single truck load, and transport costs will inevitably increase.
The UK has already rejected the EU Withdrawal Bill three times, making a No Deal Brexit very likely.
2: ‘New Deal’ Brexit
- Border delay risk: unknown
- Trade tariff risk: unknown
- Likelihood: low
It’s impossible to predict what a ‘New Deal’ Brexit might look like, as there is currently no formal Brexit proposal on the table. There’s arguably not enough time to create fresh proposals from scratch, either. The last attempt at a workable deal between the UK and the EU is likely to be a patchwork agreement that combines elements of the proposals already rejected. A hybrid agreement, combining parts of Plan A+, Chequers and the UK Withdrawal Bill, may still be presented.
3: A Delayed Brexit (2020 or beyond)
Westminster politicians were unable to reach an agreement on Brexit under Theresa May’s leadership in June 2019, and a second Brexit extension was deemed to be the best course of action at that time. It’s possible that Boris Johnson’s government will face the same problem, however he has made it clear that he is unwilling to postpone Brexit beyond 31 October 2019. It’s also unclear whether all 27 EU member states would be willing to prolong the Brexit uncertainty into 2020 or beyond.
Other potential outcomes
There are a number of outcomes not covered here, but at this stage we believe that any other possibilities are too unlikely to merit serious consideration. We’ll update our Brexit Customs predictions as more facts emerge. If you have any specific questions, you can reach out to our dedicated Brexit Team or take a look at our news section for the latest updates.
How Baku GLS are preparing
Our aim is to become industry experts on all matters Brexit so that, when the UK formally leaves the EU, we can continue to deliver the highest standards for our transport clients. We’re actively attending all Brexit talks, customs briefings and department of agriculture meetings. We’re reading every whitepaper and government proposal, and we’re keeping a close eye on developments here, in the UK and on mainland Europe. We’re maintaining a number of contingency plans so that, whatever the outcome of the next few months, we’re able to respond quickly. If you want to know more about how Baku can help you control costs and timelines after Brexit, please get in touch.